In a strategic move that could reshape Canada’s air defense landscape, Swedish manufacturer Saab is intensifying efforts to persuade Ottawa to opt for its Gripen fighter jet, offering tempting alternatives to the controversial F-35 acquisition. The Swedish proposal extends beyond mere aircraft delivery, envisioning extensive collaboration, including technology transfer and production involvement.
Swedish Offer: Local Production and Global Export Horizons
Saab has already provided Canada with „all the detailed information they need to understand” its offer, as stated by Johansson. This includes precise details on the speed of technology transfer and „how quickly” a local Gripen production facility could be operational. Furthermore, Johansson suggested that, should a deal be concluded, the Canadian plant could become a hub for future Gripen exports. „How would they [Canada] be involved in the full export market perspective of a fighter business?” he added, emphasizing that Saab is providing this information to the Canadian government.
The company currently operates two production lines for the multirole combat jet, one in Sweden and another in Brazil. Recently, in November 2025, Colombia signed a €3.1 billion ($3.7 billion) contract for 17 aircraft. A much more lucrative opportunity looms in Ukraine, where, after the war-torn nation and Sweden signed a letter of intent, Kyiv could order between 100 to 150 aircraft. Additionally, Thailand agreed to a 5.3 billion Swedish kroner Gripen purchase for four aircraft last year.
F-35 Versus Gripen: A Political Decision Amid Transatlantic Tensions
For weeks, Sweden has pitched Gripens as a viable alternative for Canada, a plan a senior Canadian official described in November as „very interesting.” The potential for Ottawa to cut its long-planned F-35 purchase also prompted what appeared to be a veiled threat from US Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra last month.
Pointing to „high-level political decisions” that will determine if Canada eventually acquires Gripen, Johansson stated today: „I don’t know” when a contract award decision might happen. „But of course, we have intensive discussions around this,” he added.
In a note to investors, Bryon Callan of Capital Alpha Partners said this week that the potential for Canada to „truncate” its current plan for 88 F-35s „may explain” the threats from Hoekstra and President Donald Trump. In his view, a Canadian Gripen sale could face complications because „we would expect F-35 subcontract work to be pulled from Canadian subcontractors, and the U.S. might still have leverage as the Gripen E relies on a GE Aerospace F414G engine.”
According to a Canadian Auditor General report, over 30 local aerospace companies hold F-35 contracts, largely related to the production of the stealth fighter. Callan acknowledged, however, that Canada’s move to diversify its defense supply chain „is a prudent step” on account of Trump’s threats against its neighbor’s sovereign power.
Budget and Commitments: The Course of Canada’s Fleet
Ottawa is working with a $27.7 billion CAD ($20.3 billion USD) budget for the F-35 acquisition, initially announced in 2023 to replace its Boeing CF-18 fleet, but currently under review to „ensure” that the aircraft is the „best choice,” according to the Auditor General. Despite political disagreement, Canada remains committed to buying a first tranche of 16 F-35s, with eight units set for delivery to Luke Air Force Base, Ariz., between 2026 and 2027.
Beyond Gripen: Expanding Saab’s Aviation Horizons
While it remains to be seen if Canada will commit to a Gripen order in the near term, Saab is moving forward with „many initiatives and investments” to deliver on a planned production ramp-up of the aircraft, Johansson said. On Wednesday, another Saab executive told Aviation Week that the existing production target sits at an annual rate of 36 aircraft.
Regarding other aviation business, Johansson noted that he is awaiting a new Canadian surveillance plane acquisition to take shape, for which Saab is expected to make a GlobalEye aircraft offer. He is also hopeful that NATO will „come to a decision” regarding a possible contract for the airborne early warning platform, as a replacement for the alliance’s aging E-3 Sentry fleet. GlobalEye is under assessment again by NATO, after the alliance ended interest in procuring Boeing’s E-7A Wedgetail last year.
