The United States remains, at present, the undisputed world leader in unmanned systems technology. This position allows it to both support allies in the Indo-Pacific region and implement innovations developed by the industries of partner nations. However, an Asian giant looms threateningly: China is investing massively in manufacturing infrastructure, aiming to develop new technological capabilities that would secure it a crucial strategic advantage in the region.
A Geostrategic Race for Technological Supremacy
Autonomy and artificial intelligence (AI) represent the central pillars of unmanned systems, and their potential is barely being scratched. Nevertheless, these tools remain, to a certain extent, limited without human direction. Therefore, the development and implementation of unmanned systems is a complex effort that goes beyond the mere creation of a new tool, states Stayne Hoff, director of business development at Red Cat.
„Autonomy is omnipresent, permeating everything,” Hoff emphasizes. „It is transforming loitering munitions, all classes of unmanned aerial systems (UAS), ground systems, and surface warfare. AI is amazing, but the difficulty lies in how to integrate it to be reliable, predictable, and effective, capable of operating in contested or denied environments with proven levels of resilience.”
China is ardently pursuing these tools and other capabilities, in its desire to expand its influence in both the Indo-Pacific and the Global South. Through its economic might and closed economic ecosystem, Beijing can allocate almost limitless resources to challenges, and its willingness to do so is evident. The future of the region likely depends on the ability of the United States and its allies to keep pace with China’s expansion objectives, particularly concerning manufacturing and infrastructure.
China’s Economic Power: A Rising Leviathan
China has transformed into a formidable economic power and is unwilling to settle for the status of the world’s second-largest economy, explains Shihoko Goto, vice president and director of the Asia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
„China has prospered by taking advantage of the liberal international economic order, but it now wants to reshape it, even though it has benefited enormously from it,” declares Goto. „It also wants to transcend the status of merely being the ‘factory to the world.’ The question is: where is China heading? How does it see itself winning this global competition?”
China’s objective, according to Goto, is to become the predominant technological superpower globally. This goal is pursued with intense focus on building a technological base equal to or superior to any other country, while maintaining strict control to prevent adversaries or potential adversaries from benefiting from it.
„If we are in a Fourth Industrial Revolution centered on the digital economy, China wants to dominate and dictate the rules,” Goto adds. „This means establishing governance norms and rules, not just being a simple production center. They are prepared to invest money, people, infrastructure – a national mobilization for this objective. If they succeed, what does that mean? It means that not only will the gap between the United States and China in advanced semiconductor production continue to shrink and, perhaps, China will even overtake the US, but they will also dominate in establishing data centers.”
Taiwan and the Specter of Technological Blockade
This reality creates a major challenge for other countries in the region, which simply do not possess the economic power necessary to compete with China. They must rely on the support of the United States or other allies to keep pace, constantly wondering whether Beijing is merely saber-rattling or preparing for a major strategic move in the region.
The variables involved in keeping pace with China’s technological advancements go beyond a mere technological base or the economic capabilities of a country like Taiwan, which can build and supply unmanned systems to its partners in the region, but could be isolated if China becomes aggressive, warns Hoff.
„The challenge with Taiwan is that it’s an island, so it’s easy to imagine a naval blockade making it difficult for them to sustain supplying a regional ally with UAS,” explains Hoff. „In this context, mainland suppliers might be favored for such a role. It will probably be, to some extent, determined by geography, but it’s like asking how you create a Silicon Valley elsewhere? Many ingredients are needed, in the right proportions, at or above a critical mass, to create a self-sustaining market leader position.”
Shihoko Goto emphasizes that unmanned technology is a key consideration in the dynamic between Taiwan and China, as Taiwan is making efforts to strengthen its defensive capabilities, even if a deliberate invasion of Taiwan by China is considered unlikely by Goto.
„This does not exclude the fact that Beijing is undertaking other actions, not necessarily kinetic, but other forms of action,” states Goto. „These manifest as cyberattacks and the like. Drone technology in terms of surveillance, drone technology in terms of offensive capabilities – these are areas where China is developing, but so are countries like Japan and South Korea.”
China’s Expansion in the Global South
Beyond the Indo-Pacific, China is extending its influence to other parts of the world. Although, traditionally, China does not cooperate with other countries in the classic sense, it is making efforts to build systems that will make nations in Africa and the Global South dependent on Chinese technology and money, Goto adds.
„The technological dependence of African nations on China is only growing and will continue in this vein,” declares Goto. „That’s where I see China’s vision saying: we can push back against any retaliatory effort that Europe, the US are making, as well as other countries, other emerging markets. The Global South is now more dependent on China than on the United States.”
International Collaboration: The Key to Resilience
Companies worldwide are exploring artificial intelligence and other advanced technologies to push the boundaries of what unmanned systems can do. Part of this endeavor involves understanding that, sometimes, the best way to quickly incorporate a new capability is through partnerships with other companies, rather than trying to do everything alone.
„All technology businesses are perpetually running (or at least walking fast) to keep their products updated and future-focused,” notes Hoff. „Many companies are trying to do the same thing, so if you’re not innovating, you’ll be obsolete in a few years.”
„When we are working to integrate new capabilities into our systems, we generally look to procure from multiple sources, especially if it’s an emerging technology where it’s not clear who will become the industry leader.”
The same philosophy applies between countries, states Goto.
„There is also a great opportunity for those established institutions to look into the possibility of greater coordination and investment in new technologies. We have had NATO investing in innovation funds,” mentions Goto. „There are efforts for the United States to collaborate closely with Japan on infrastructure development and investments in new technologies. This is, undoubtedly, one of the areas ripe for coordination.”
