In less than two months, President-elect Trump will assume office, facing significant national security threats to U.S. interests, particularly from China. simultaneously, he will contend with a Department of Defense (DoD) and defense industrial base that has struggled to overcome decades of neglect to meet the country’s increasingly complex defense requirements.
The administration has an opportunity for early action. Within a month of taking office, the incoming secretaries of defense and state should convene a „First Breakfast” with key industry leaders—a candid and overdue dialogue between government and industry about these emerging threats. This conversation should focus on what the government requires from the defense sector and how the industry believes the government can assist in addressing these needs.
While the term “First Breakfast” has been previously mentioned, we propose a more comprehensive initiative aimed at resetting the relationship between government and industry to confront our most pressing national security challenges.
In the concluding days of the Cold War, Secretary of Defense Les Aspin and his deputy, Bill Perry, hosted the CEOs of the leading defense companies at the Pentagon, a meeting now remembered as the “Last Supper.” In that 1993 gathering, Perry delivered a stark message: defense budgets would decline, necessitating industry consolidation for survival. The industry heeded this warning, leading to a drastic reduction in prime defense contractors from 51 to 5 by 2003 due to extensive mergers and acquisitions.
Over the subsequent three decades, the U.S. enjoyed a period of unchallenged military supremacy, free from the threat of a legitimate near-peer competitor. However, we now face a time of unprecedented uncertainty and international security challenges. Former DoD official Mara Karlin recently described this shift as a transition toward “total war,” wherein all facets of national power are mobilized against a diverse array of targets to reshape global order. After decades of industrial mismanagement, our national advantage has eroded and now urgently needs revitalization.
To address the failures of the past, we require a timely and different conversation—enter the „First Breakfast.” This gathering should include not only the remaining major contractors but also innovative newcomers, dynamic mid-sized firms, and private equity focused on national security. Given the modern emphasis on transforming conflicts through automation and advanced, rapidly evolving software, leading software firms should also be part of this discussion.
Moreover, recognizing the critical connection between diplomacy and defense in safeguarding national interests, supporting partner and allied militaries, and leveraging industrial capacity abroad, the secretary of state should co-host this dialogue.
This discussion must commence with a frank evaluation of the strategic threats we face and the deterioration of our industrial edge—both technologically and in terms of mass. The next administration should maintain transparency about the operational challenges our military confronts and recognize industry as an essential partner in addressing these issues. Foundational challenges, such as workforce shortages, constraints of fixed defense budgets, and the impact of increasingly costly but necessary modernization investments, should be discussed openly, acknowledging their direct influence on industrial investment.
A productive First Breakfast should chart a path toward rebuilding trust, enhancing government-industry collaboration, creating opportunities for new entrants to the defense sector, fostering competition, and reducing tensions based on mutual understanding of each party’s motivations and challenges. Importantly, this should not lead to a protracted two-year process to devise a new industrial strategy.
Within four weeks of the meeting, participants should draft a set of guiding principles outlining what the government needs from industry, what it can do to assist industry in meeting government demands, and key issues requiring continued collaborative efforts. Follow-up meetings should be arranged to develop concrete actions, deliverables, and track progress against these principles, ensuring mutual accountability.
It is crucial that this is a nonpartisan initiative, with senior congressional leaders acting as allies in the push to invigorate the defense industrial base’s innovation and production capabilities. For too long, Congress has neglected its duty to enact timely and regular appropriations, opting for continuing resolutions that sidestep its constitutional responsibilities, thereby paralyzing the defense community and incurring additional costs to taxpayers. Senior congressional members must recognize the consequences of inaction and party politics, and recommit to their role as partners in this endeavor.
While military and industry stakeholders have engaged in discussions about these issues for years—especially as the national security focus has shifted from counterterrorism to addressing near-peer threats—efforts across various reforms, from acquisition strategies to foreign military sales and overcoming the “valley of death,” remain critical. A straightforward and strategic First Breakfast discussion could catalyze progress in these essential policy reforms.
The current trajectory of our national defense and industrial base is unsustainable. The “First Breakfast” represents a pivotal step toward reestablishing the government’s relationship with industry and mobilizing the full breadth of American power and ingenuity to tackle today’s national security challenges and those on the horizon.
