A New Era of Relations?
After decades of unresolved and often contentious border disputes, the Lebanese and Syrian governments have signed a landmark agreement to delineate their shared territory. This development, hailed by former Lebanese military officials and external analysts, could signify the beginnings of a cooperative relationship between the two nations; however, the realization of this potential hinges significantly on “political will.”
The agreement, inked last week in Saudi Arabia, entails the establishment of legal and specialized committees to enhance collaboration in several domains, particularly concerning security and military challenges along their shared border. Lebanese Minister of Defense Gen. Michel Mansa and his Syrian counterpart, Maj. Gen. Marhaf Abu Qasra, formalized the agreement during their meeting, which focused on mutual security interests to bolster stability in the region.
Contextual Challenges
This agreement arrives at a critical juncture for both countries. Syria is still grappling with the aftermath of the downfall of longtime dictator Bashar al-Assad, while Lebanon’s new President is navigating a fragile ceasefire with Israel and attempting to rebuild areas devastated by past conflicts. Recently, violent border clashes have underscored the tenuous nature of peace, resulting in multiple fatalities.
While the border demarcation agreement has been described as a step forward, veteran military officers stress the importance of translating this agreement into actionable policies. Retired Lebanese Armed Forces Gen. Wehbe Katicha noted that effective implementation of administrative agreements and security coordination could pave the way for a new era of relations and assist in resolving historical border discrepancies.
Insight from Experts
Analyst Aram Nerguizian emphasized the significance of engaging in discussions on border security, suggesting that the alternative could lead to increased instability. He acknowledged the Lebanese military’s capability to defend their recognized territory, yet he expressed concern over the reliability and command structure of military and paramilitary forces within Syria.
Retired LAF Gen. Khalil Helou cautioned that while public declarations are promising, tangible progress will take time, as border demarcation is a complex and lengthy process requiring meticulous consideration of existing geographies and population overlaps. The presence of overlapping populations at certain border points poses additional challenges, but the potential for Saudi involvement may help mitigate future disputes.
Challenges Ahead for Military Coordination
The formalization of border demarcation would also clarify the role of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) in border security, a mission that has drawn scrutiny over its efficacy, particularly from elements associated with Hezbollah. Despite past criticisms, Nerguizian expressed confidence in the LAF’s capability, supported by a robust framework consisting of four land border regiments and additional units poised to respond to threats.
Helou noted that while existing watchtowers and reconnaissance drones enhance the LAF’s surveillance capabilities, the force requires additional personnel and resources to effectively fulfill its mandate. There is also a recognized need for ongoing modernization of intelligence and surveillance technologies to address emerging security challenges.
Fostering Communication to Prevent Conflict
Experts unanimously agree that maintaining constant communication between the Lebanese and Syrian armies is essential for effective border control, particularly as the Syrian military undergoes restructuring. Helou advocated for proactive military dialogue, political engagement with Hezbollah, and proactive measures to prevent tribal and militant incursions near the border.
The recent border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Syria sets a hopeful precedent for future cooperation, but its success will ultimately depend on the commitment to implement agreements effectively and foster a stable, secure environment along their shared frontier.
