According to top commanders in the Indo-Pacific region, while modern warfare encompasses a multitude of trends and capabilities, the most crucial element right now is networking.
The Mega-Trend: Competition for Networks
Officials have been discussing the evolving nature of warfare for years. Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of INDOPACOM, views it through the lens of a „mega-trend” comprising three sub-trends, according to his deputy.
“The mega trend that you could think about wrapping up all those other three meta [trends] and underpinning it, connecting it, enabling it, is ubiquitous competition for networks,” said Lt. Gen. Joshua Rudd, deputy commander of INDOPACOM, at AFCEA’s TechNet Indo-Pacific in Hawaii. “If you can’t network all these systems capabilities together on an architecture that enables us to connect and apply and move data, move information, move updated software at the speed of war, none of that works.”
Meta-Trends: Information Warfare, Drones, and Precision Strike
The meta-trends that constitute this broader competition for networks are: information and cognitive operations; the democratization of drones; and penetrating strike and precision effects.
Information Warfare: Shaping the Narrative
Rudd characterized the information revolution as still in its early stages, emphasizing the power of social media and artificial intelligence to influence public opinion and political will faster than the movement of forces.
“What happens on YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, that might affect whether we do or don’t move troops and how fast they get there, and whether or not we should, and it’ll definitely influence populations and political decision makers,” he said. “Information operations, influence campaigns, cognitive warfare are all becoming central to how nations compete and fight wars.”
Quoting a military historian, Rudd stated that the side that shapes the narrative often dictates when and where the first shot is fired, or if it is fired at all.
Adversaries have already begun leveraging information capabilities effectively, operating below the threshold of armed conflict to achieve their objectives without firing a shot.
Democratization of Drones: Reshaping Assault and Defense
While drones have had a remarkable impact on the battlefield, particularly in Ukraine, Rudd cautioned against believing that modern warfare will solely consist of drone warfare. However, he acknowledged their significant role and the way they have reshaped warfare, noting their rapid adoption in the Middle East and Europe.
“Gone are the days of where only great powers possessed unmanned capability. Everybody in this room could go out and afford to buy a relatively cheap, inexpensive, capable, unmanned system,” Rudd said. “Today a startup company right here in Honolulu could produce unmanned capability at cost, at speed and at scale like never before. This trend fundamentally changes the traditional calculus of assault warfare.”
He added that consumer drones combined with innovative tactics in Ukraine have provided defensive capabilities that were unimaginable a decade ago, prompting invading forces to reconsider their attack strategies.
Drones are also having an impact on the offensive side, allowing forces to make first contact and clear the way for humans, reducing the risk to personnel compared to previous conflicts.
Precision Strike: Changing the Calculus of Deterrence
The third meta-trend Rudd highlighted involves the use of readily available space access, advanced propulsion, classified technologies, and computing power, which collectively accelerate and enhance the lethality of the targeting process.
“Survivable, penetrating strike warfare is becoming increasingly salient tool for influencing political decision makers … When precision munitions can travel thousands of miles and strike critical targets with minimal collateral damage, the calculus of deterrence changes exponentially,” he said. “Think about that in terms of what it means to the Indo-Pacific region and what we have to develop and deliver across the region.”
Rudd believes that this capability is the pinnacle of deterrence, particularly in the vast distances of the Pacific, where friendly forces must operate within an increasingly expansive weapons engagement zone of an adversary.
Networking: The Key to Integrating Capabilities
However, Rudd emphasized that none of these trends and capabilities matter if they cannot be connected.
“We would argue, space cyber, sensors, AI compute and 5G, this is all enabling the data, the compute power, the transport and security to bring things that have never happened at the speed and the scale of a war in a conflict that we potentially face if this were to happen. That’s the mega trend,” Rudd said. “The competition isn’t just about hardware or software. It’s about creating an integrated system that delivers decision superiority, as well as command and control. The side that masters cognitive operations, counter-assault capabilities, survivable precision strike will shape the future security environment.”
