As US military strikes against Iran expand, so do concerns about the depth of the American military’s munition magazines. In this tense context, lawmakers and Trump administration officials are considering new supplemental defense funding, an injection of capital intended to replace spent missiles in the conflict, which could soar north of $50 billion.
Expanding Raids, Dwindling Stockpiles: Call for Supplemental Funding
„There are more details to be determined, of course,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday, confirming discussions with Trump officials on the issue. „It depends on how long the operation goes and what the need is.” In the opening days of the campaign, which President Donald Trump described as potentially weeks-long, the US has struck more than 1,700 targets in Iran using a variety of munitions, including Tomahawk land attack missiles, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). US forces have also responded to Iranian attacks, using Patriot interceptors and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile systems to knock out incoming threats.
Colossal Costs and Geopolitical Risks: Every Missile Counts
Each missile fired is costly and can take years to replace, potentially creating a long-term vulnerability for the United States, analysts warn. „The number of interceptors fired this weekend was probably quite considerable. We can’t afford to continue doing this, and the only way to preclude that is some sort of decisive political or military resolution,” said Tom Karako, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Karako added that „the expenditure of long-range weapons should also give us pause,” emphasizing that every Tomahawk used against Iran is one less that could be employed in a potential conflict with China.
Between Presidential Assurances and Ground Reality: The Resource Dilemma
Worries that the US could be depleting its offensive and defensive arsenal appear to have reached President Trump, who sought to reassure his social media followers about the status of US munition stockpiles. Trump claimed in a Monday evening post on Truth Social that US munitions stockpiles have „never been higher or better” and that the US has a „virtually unlimited supply” of weapons.
However, prior to „Operation Epic Fury,” military leaders had expressed a desire to increase the production of munitions like the Tomahawk and the Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (LRASM), following operations in the Red Sea against Houthi rebels that took a toll on stockpiles. In May 2025, Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jim Kilby told lawmakers that the Navy is seeking to expedite munitions replacements in the event of a future conflict with China. The next month, the Navy employed Tomahawk missiles during „Operation Midnight Hammer,” targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, but those strikes were relatively limited compared to the ongoing US operation.
The „One-War” Capability: A Strategic Vulnerability?
Katherine Thompson, an expert at the Cato Institute, warned that the intensive use of munitions in campaigns like „Operation Epic Fury” could „limit optionality” for the US if a conflict emerged in another theater, absent a plan for an accelerated replenishment timeline. „The United States is only equipped to support a one-war planning construct,” Thompson stated.
„The resourcing question for Tomahawks as well as other critical munitions like Patriot and THAAD will be front and center as this campaign continues,” Thompson added. „Limits on these resources will ultimately depend on firing rates, potential pull-in of additional resources from other theaters, and whether or not this campaign does in fact extend for weeks and/or months.” Regardless of how the US maneuvers its missiles, Karako stressed that starting the work of producing more munitions is a top priority. „To replenish what we used this week and ramp up production rates dramatically, it will almost certainly require some kind of supplemental,” he said, acknowledging that „the politics on the Hill right now aren’t especially amenable to that, but it needs to be done.”
Risk Mitigation and Production Obstacles: A Difficult Road Ahead
Bryan Clark, a retired submariner and fellow at the Hudson Institute, estimated that the US could have fired at least 100 Tomahawk missiles as part of „Operation Epic Fury,” given the massive buildup of Navy warships in the region. However, he emphasized that the bigger problem is running through air defense missiles. „SM-2, SM-3, and SM-6 missiles are in short supply and the US is not building them fast enough to catch up,” Clark stated. „If another conflict occurred, the US might have to change its shot doctrine to use fewer weapons per engagement.”
The munitions inventory itself isn’t the only factor—”the core issue is risk management,” according to Jud Crane, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for force readiness. Crane said that modifying shot doctrine is one of the risk mitigations on the table that CENTCOM could consider, if necessary, to preserve munitions. CENTCOM could also potentially substitute alternate munitions and systems, or use different platforms for air defenses. „While those mitigations can relieve inventory stress, they introduce additional risk—which is ultimately borne by service members,” Crane added.
„The Department has been improving its projections of munitions inventories over time and weighing production against competing demands, including potential needs in other conflicts, as part of the process in setting Total Munitions Requirements,” Crane explained. „While the Secretary can reallocate more munitions from reserve inventory or other theaters, that just shifts risk to the future as inventories take even longer to recover. Ultimately, it’s the White House and NSC that determine whether the risk to strategic readiness is acceptable.”
Efforts to improve munition production are underway. For example, the Pentagon and Lockheed Martin signed an agreement in January to bolster production of THAAD interceptors from 96 each year to 400 annually. Likewise, the Pentagon and RTX inked several agreements in February to boost production capacity and delivery of munitions, including the Tomahawk to more than 1,000 a year, and the SM-6 to more than 500 a year. While RTX declined to provide comments on current annual production levels, it previously indicated that these agreements could amount to four times the current annual production rate. However, Karako warned that this framework, though positive, is not the same as firm contracts: „The current prospect for ramping munitions is a bit less sanguine than meets the eye.”
