The simmering conflict between the United States and Israel, on one side, and Iran, on the other, took an alarming turn overnight, spilling into Lebanon. Intense exchanges of fire between the armed group Hezbollah and the Israeli military have suddenly transformed the Cedar country into an active battlefield, with an initial toll of at least 31 reported civilian casualties.
Internal Backlash: Lebanese Government Condemns, Demands Disarmament
Following the strikes, the Lebanese government reacted vehemently, demanding that Hezbollah „hand over its weapons” and branding any military activity by the group as „illegal.” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam stated after a cabinet meeting that the Lebanese state „declares its absolute and unequivocal rejection of any military or security actions launched from Lebanese territory outside the framework of its legitimate institutions.”
Hezbollah Retaliates: Missile Attacks and Israeli Counterstrikes
During the night, Hezbollah launched a number of missiles from South Lebanon, attacks which, according to open-source videos, were intercepted shortly after launch. This action prompted a furious reaction from Israel, which retaliated with multiple attacks on targets in South Lebanon and a southern suburb of Beirut. Hezbollah justified its actions as a „legitimate defensive response,” carried out in response to the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Lebanon, From Bystander to Battlefield: A Harsh Reality
Retired general Maroun Hitti warned that Hezbollah’s attack on Israel has „instantly transformed Lebanon from fragile bystander to active battlefield,” describing the situation as „harsh and asymmetric.” The expert detailed that these events involved „rocket and drone fire from Lebanon, massive Israeli retaliation across Lebanese infrastructure, targeted decapitation strikes against Hezbollah assets.”
Hezbollah’s Strength Under Scrutiny: Significant Degradation
Ahead of this exchange, there was an open question about whether Hezbollah would join the fight alongside its decades-long patron. According to analysts, the group has been severely weakened over the past two years by Israeli military operations. Ali Bakir, defense analyst and professor at Qatar University, explained that „Hezbollah in Lebanon has been severely degraded. Its senior command structure has been dismantled down to lower operational levels. Strategic weapons depots and infrastructure have been hit significantly. It has lost much of its operational freedom in the south, and its logistical corridors and tunnels have been disrupted.” Among Israeli tactics was an unprecedented operation in which Israeli intelligence booby-trapped thousands of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies.
Widening Tensions: Eyes on Iran’s Proxies
While Hezbollah has yet to respond to the Lebanese government’s demand for disarmament, international observers are closely watching Iran’s other historical proxies, including Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq and Houthis in Yemen. Kristian Alexander, a security and defense analyst based in the Gulf, suggests that these groups are exercising „restraint because escalation at this stage carries high strategic risks for them and for the states that host them.” Iraqi militias face immense pressure from the Iraqi government to avoid jeopardizing national stability, while the Houthis, though capable, know that expanded attacks on Red Sea shipping would trigger aggressive countermeasures by the United States and its partners. Analyst Ryan Bohl considers the Iraqi group „less of an impactful actor” and expresses surprise at the lack of Houthi strikes in the Red Sea. He theorizes that the Houthis „calculate that politically speaking they benefit very little from intervention in this particular conflict.”
