Strengthening Bilateral Ties

For the first time in five years, China has dispatched a significant military delegation to Japan for a week-long visit. According to a statement from the Chinese military, the mission of the Eastern Theater Command delegation is to „strengthen mutual understanding and trust, while advancing defense exchanges between the two countries.” Japanese official Yoshimasa Hayashi echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that open communication among commanders is vital to fostering constructive and stable relations between Japan and China.

Economic Context Behind the Visit

Analysts suggest that the timing of this rare meeting may reflect an effort by Chinese leader Xi Jinping to improve relations with Japan amid potential shifts in U.S. policy under the incoming administration of President Donald Trump. John Blaxland, head of the Australian National University’s Washington office, noted that both nations are likely considering how to navigate upcoming economic challenges, given their highly interdependent economies.

Bonnie Glaser, a China expert, also pointed out that, although the delegation is military-focused, economic motivations are present. She suggested that China might be seizing the opportunity presented by the U.S. political transition to stabilize ties with Japan and potentially drive a wedge between Japan and the U.S.

Significance of Military Communication

Hayashi’s reference to communication at the „commanders’ level” is particularly significant, as this level of dialogue has been sought by U.S. officials with the People’s Liberation Army, despite previously frosty interactions. However, Blaxland cautioned against interpreting this meeting as indicative of an improving Chinese-U.S. military relationship.

Ongoing Competition and Recent Developments

Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic and Policy Institute noted that while regular communication on defense issues will likely persist, the competitive nature of the China-U.S. relationship remains intact. A recent display of this rivalry was evident when China unveiled advanced aircraft, sparking concerns that it could outpace the U.S. in developing sixth-generation fighter jet technology.

Additionally, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Eric Smith brought attention to discussions regarding U.S. troop presence in Japan, particularly the planned relocation of troops from Okinawa to Guam. This change is expected to be welcomed by Beijing, as it reduces U.S. military proximity to key areas.

Potential Changes in Chinese Behavior

Davis predicted that competition between China and the U.S. would escalate under the Trump administration, with a focus on tariffs and strategic positioning. Nevertheless, ongoing dialogue is crucial to mitigate risks of misunderstandings and potential conflicts, especially regarding sensitive areas like the South China Sea.

Ultimately, the outcome of this week’s meetings may hinge on whether China alters its military actions around the disputed islands near Japan. Recent incursions, such as a Chinese aircraft breaching Japanese airspace and Chinese Coast Guard ships approaching the Senkaku Islands, have raised concerns in the region. Ian Chong from the National University of Singapore emphasized that the key question is whether there will be significant changes in China’s military operations around Japan moving forward.

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