China’s rapid expansion of military power in the Indo-Pacific has compelled the United States and its allies to fundamentally rethink their deterrence strategies, industrial capacity, and how conflicts may unfold across critical maritime, air, and space domains. From shipbuilding rates that far outpace the US Navy to increasingly assertive „gray-zone” activities at sea and in space, Beijing is reshaping the strategic environment at a dizzying pace, putting pressure on democratic security institutions to adapt.
In an interview, Philip Shetler-Jones, a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), offered an in-depth perspective on these converging trends, their implications for alliance strategies, and the strengths and vulnerabilities of deterrence in the region.
China’s Industrial Power: A Decisive Strategic Advantage
„The industrial power of China is the simple way of putting anxiety at the moment,” Shetler-Jones declared, emphasizing that this advantage manifests on multiple levels. „The scale and pace of shipbuilding gives China not just the ability to put a large fleet at sea and more modernized equipment, but also the ability to maintain and potentially replace losses in war, which is a big difference between China and almost everyone else. That would be my number one: industrial power, manufacturing power.”
In addition to industrial capacity, the RUSI analyst highlighted China’s progress in space. Beijing demonstrates a „boldness in terms of their ambitions [and] the kinds of capabilities they’re prepared to demonstrate,” including „quite threatening, aggressive” maneuvers with space vehicles, aimed at denying others access to space in a conflict scenario.
Another concerning aspect is Beijing’s growing confidence in its maritime control. „I’ve also heard from more than one source in the last couple of months that there is now a sense of high confidence on the Chinese military side that they have reached a comfortable level of sea control within the First Island Chain,” Shetler-Jones explained. This combination of industrial capacity, regenerating naval power, boldness in space, and surveillance confidence is the driving force behind current concerns.
Internal Uncertainties in the Chinese Military and its Relationship with Politics
Despite its outward strength, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) faces internal turmoil, exemplified by recent purges of senior officers. There are divergent theories regarding the motives: either a demonstration of Xi Jinping’s power over the military, or an indication of corruption or potential plots against him.
„I think that is still open for debate,” Shetler-Jones said. „But either way, it does not look like the relationship between the political leadership and the military is settled. I take that as having the consequence that the Chinese military is probably not ready to go to war in the sense of being optimized organizationally for war. But that does not mean they are not ready to go to war. Taking them to war might actually consolidate Xi’s authority.”
Trump’s Vision and the Resilience of American Alliances
Regarding former US President Donald Trump and his approach to China, Shetler-Jones observed that Trump „does not see conflict with China as being a high priority for him.” Trump apparently believes in a „possible and sustainable equilibrium” between the two powers and does not want a conflict during his tenure, citing assurances from Xi Jinping regarding Taiwan.
However, the RUSI analyst also highlighted the positive aspects of US engagement in the region, even within the context of Trump’s vision. „By and large, that speaks well of the state of US alliances in the region and the commitment of leaders in the region to maintain those alliances and add to them dimensions like cooperation on rare earth processing,” he noted, refuting criticisms that suggested Trump would destroy these relationships.
New Regional Dynamics: From Russia to Korea and Japan
Beyond the US-China rivalry, the region is also being reconfigured by other dynamics. A realignment of Russia-North Korea and Russia-China relations has a direct impact on deepening defense cooperation between South Korea and Japan, despite their differing political leanings.
Accelerated defense reforms in Japan and South Korea are notable. Japan aims to surpass the 2% of GDP defense spending target, exploring nuclear propulsion and the creation of an external intelligence organization. South Korea is also considering nuclear-powered submarines. These moves are not just a response to China and US-China tensions, but also to a Russia-North Korea relationship that „certainly not a temporary relationship of convenience connected to the Ukraine war, but will last beyond that and be more significant.”
The Question of US Capacity and the AUKUS Dilemma
There is growing concern about the US’s ability to fulfill its commitments. Shetler-Jones notes that countries „are doing more to prepare for a loss of confidence in the US ability to service its commitments in the region.” This refers not necessarily to political will, but to the industrial and military capacity of the US to match or exceed the Chinese threat.
The AUKUS agreement, for instance, is seen by Trump as a „good deal” for the US, given that Australia is paying for submarines and providing bases. However, for Australia, the crucial question remains whether the US can deliver enough Virginia-class submarines in time to fill the gap left by the retirement of its Collins-class submarines. „I don’t see the progress being made in the rate of production,” Shetler-Jones criticized. Adding the construction of South Korean submarines in US shipyards seems like „magical thinking,” given the skilled labor shortage, which is considered a major bottleneck.
Pillars of Stability: Japan and the Philippines, Critical Actors
In the face of these challenges, certain allies become exceptionally important. Japan stands out as „the outstanding one” for Shetler-Jones, followed by Australia. Japan holds significant economic influence over China and possesses a powerful navy, possibly the second strongest in the region. Its vast economy allows it to translate investments into capability, supported by high-tech industries.
Beyond its power, Japan’s geographical position is crucial, especially in the context of a potential Taiwan crisis. „If you’re worried about Taiwan, Japan is by far the most critical variable about how Taiwan gets support,” either with Japan’s acquiescence or even with its direct involvement alongside the US. Shetler-Jones emphasized that without Japan, „the US’s whole posture in the region really doesn’t work.”
The Philippines, though often underestimated, also holds enormous „potential added value.” Its geographical position, along the island chain, places it close to Taiwan’s maritime zones. The ability to station missiles, radars, and operate ships through Philippine waters is essential for maintaining the status quo with Taiwan and countering a potential blockade.
Deepening Partnership: The Growing UK-Japan Relationship
The RUSI analyst also discussed his new work on the growing relationship between the United Kingdom and Japan. For the past 15 years, this partnership has focused on developing shared capabilities and exercises during peacetime. Now, however, a profound re-evaluation is imperative.
„Now we’re at the stage where we need to think more openly and seriously about what kind of relationship we would have in the event of a conflict or crisis,” he explained, citing projects like the future GCAP fighter jet. „You’ve got a growing set of co-dependencies there. Look to GCAP for example. In the future we’re going to be tied together in ways where you’ve got to think through what that means. If one country or both countries end up in a war, what are you going to be expected to provide or what will you want to provide because you have those co-dependencies?” This type of question requires in-depth strategic analysis to anticipate reciprocal roles and responsibilities.
