The recent surge of regional geopolitical agreements involving the United States and its allies in the Indo-Pacific is likely creating a “galvanizing effect” in Beijing, where military strategists have long sought “absolute clarity” regarding the intentions of global actors, according to Kevin Rudd, Australia’s top diplomat to the U.S.
Rudd, who also served as a former prime minister and is recognized as a scholar on China, pointed to the formation of AUKUS, the renewed bilateral relationship between the U.S. and the Philippines, the expanded trilateral partnership involving the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, and the activities of the Quad (a security dialogue comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia) as notable examples of these agreements.
“Put all that together if you’re sitting in Beijing … suddenly, the correlation of forces is looking more complex than it used to just five years ago,” Rudd remarked during an event hosted by Arizona State University and the non-partisan think tank, New America.
He clarified that these insights represent his personal conclusions rather than a formal evaluation of the Australian government.
Historically, Rudd noted that Chinese military planners derived a sense of confidence from their ability to anticipate how any global actor might respond to various scenarios. However, he emphasized that the multitude of recent agreements emerging from countries across the region and beyond—particularly in the case of the United Kingdom—has made it challenging for Beijing to assess the strategic landscape.
As a result, it has “therefore presented a much more complex picture” for Chinese assessments, he added.
Rudd’s comments included a focus on AUKUS and its developments since the agreement’s establishment in late 2021. Although the White House and other officials have attempted to frame the security pact as aimed at stabilizing the Indo-Pacific, rather than explicitly deterring China, the implications of the U.S. and U.K. sharing sensitive military technologies with Australia—at a time when the Pentagon continuously warns about China’s ambitions—leave little ambiguity about the message being communicated to Beijing by Washington, London, and Canberra.
He further noted that the United States’ alliances with 43 other countries globally represent a “remarkable strategic advantage” that China lacks.
“The People’s Republic of China has a relationship with North Korea. It has a relationship with Russia, and it has a relationship with Pakistan. Beyond that, they do not have the range of geographies that the United States possesses,” Rudd stated.
