Growing Concerns Over China’s Military Capacity

According to a recent report from a think tank, a relative lack of fortifications at U.S. air bases has created a strategic “imbalance” in the Indo-Pacific region that favors China. This situation necessitates renewed efforts by the United States to strengthen base defenses amid escalating tensions that could lead to conflict with Beijing.

Since 2010, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has significantly expanded and reinforced its airfields, resulting in more runways and over 3,000 aircraft shelters, according to authors Thomas Shugart and Tim Walton from the Hudson Institute in their report titled “Concrete Sky: Air Base Hardening in the Western Pacific.” In contrast, U.S. initiatives in this area have been described as “modest,” with limited growth in aircraft shelters and ramp space in recent years.

Implications of Increased Chinese Airfield Capacity

The report highlights that in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, where there are concerns that China may attempt an invasion, the increased capacity of Chinese airfields poses a significant threat. The authors conclude that PLA forces would require far fewer resources to suppress or destroy the airfields of the U.S. and its allies, creating a stark imbalance. They estimate that if U.S. and allied forces were to operate from airfields in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, the advantage would tilt toward China by roughly 25%. This figure could soar to 88% if U.S. operations were limited to Japan alone.

Recommendations for Action

In response to these challenges, the report proposes three main initiatives for policymakers:

  1. Cost-Effective Munitions Development: The first recommendation calls for the U.S. to produce cheaper, easily manufactured standoff munitions to target airfield threats, enabling a proactive approach against vulnerabilities in the region.
  2. Infrastructure Resilience: The second initiative emphasizes the need to enhance air base infrastructure by building more shelters for aircraft and expanding existing airfields, including those in the U.S. The authors caution against perceiving hardened shelters as outdated, highlighting their continued relevance, particularly when paired with effective air defense systems.
  3. Long-Endurance Aircraft Design: The report advocates for evolving the U.S. military’s force design to include long-endurance aircraft capable of operating from remote locations and managing extended airtime, even from damaged or nonexistent runways.

Strategic Adjustments and Interagency Collaboration

Additionally, the report suggests that as the Air Force and Army evaluate future base defense strategies, it would be prudent to reallocate resources from ground maneuver operations to air defense artillery. Policymakers are encouraged to consider creating interservice agreements to enable the Army to provide air defense support to both the Air Force and Navy, thereby fostering collaboration among branches.

Conclusion

These insights underscore the critical need for the U.S. military to enhance its technological resilience and readiness in the face of rising threats. Strengthening air base fortifications, improving military capabilities, and fostering interagency cooperation will be essential for maintaining strategic advantages in an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.

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