A senior Ukrainian military official believes that Ukraine can achieve victory over Russia if international partners provide additional air defense systems and lift restrictions on long-range strikes inside Russian territory.
„We have a chance [of victory] and this chance is quite big,” Maj. Oleh Shyriaiev, Commander of Ukraine’s 225th Separate Assault Battalion, told Breaking Defense in a recent interview. „Right now, if we receive air defense resources, plus the means of conducting long-range strikes, then the issue that will come to the agenda will not be a ceasefire, but a victory of the civilized world, of the civilized West in this war.”
US Support May Be Reviving
Shyriaiev’s comments have gained significance following recent developments in Washington. President Donald Trump announced a new weapons deal with NATO countries, including urgently needed Patriot batteries and PAC-3 interceptors, and Trump reportedly suggested the idea of Ukraine hitting Moscow and St. Petersburg in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, according to the Financial Times.
During a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump announced that the Patriot supplies could arrive in Kyiv within days. While the exact number of systems to be acquired by alliance members before being sent to Ukraine remains unclear, negotiations have revolved around 10 units, according to Denmark’s defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen.
Dire Need for Air Defense
Shyriaiev emphasized Ukraine’s „dire need” to improve its air defenses in the face of relentless Russian bombardment, stressing the critical importance of additional Patriot systems.
„There is a lack of them,” he said. „There are not enough to cover the whole of Ukraine, which is why territories that are close to the frontline are really pounded every day and suffer under constant missile attacks.”
According to Action on Armed Violence, a UK-based arms monitoring group, Ukraine has received six „fully operational” Patriot batteries from various sources.
Patriot System’s Success
The Raytheon-produced air defense system has been credited with successfully intercepting or damaging a range of Russian military equipment, including Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, Su-34 fighter jets, A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft, and an Il-22 bomber.
Raytheon reports a high demand for Patriot due to its proven track record. The company has committed nearly $1 billion to secure critical materials and ramp up manufacturing, aiming to accelerate delivery times for Patriot radars by 25% by the end of the year. Additionally, monthly GEM-T interceptor production is projected to increase by 150% between now and 2028.
Insufficiency of Current Air Defense Capabilities
Despite the military aid already supplied and equipment due for delivery, the International Institute for Strategic Studies assessed in February that „Ukraine’s air and missile-defense capabilities remain insufficient amid Russian efforts to sustain or increase their attacks for the remainder of the year.”
Trump’s Rhetoric Shifts
Trump’s recent announcement signals a potential rekindling of US support for Ukraine. Shyriaiev noted that Trump’s rhetoric has changed for the better.
Striking Inside Russia
In recent months, Russia has intensified drone strikes against Ukraine, sometimes reaching close to 500 per day. Shyriaiev believes Ukraine could disrupt Russian drone production by directly targeting manufacturing facilities within Russia. „We would need long-range missiles and a firm decision to actually use them,” he stated.
While the Biden administration has approved the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems by Kyiv to strike back against Russia in border areas, Washington and other partners like Germany remain hesitant to authorize strikes deep into Russian territory, primarily due to concerns about escalating the conflict.
