China’s decision to execute its largest air operation yet in Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ)—conducting a blockade simulation without prior notice—appears intended to send a strong warning to Taipei rather than to instigate a broader conflict, according to analysts.
The surprise exercise, termed “Joint Sword 2024B,” involved an impressive display of military might, comprising 153 aircraft, 14 naval vessels (including one of China’s aircraft carriers), and 12 Coast Guard ships. This operation underlines the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) growing capability for joint operations, a significant strategic objective for China’s military development.
Taking place from October 14 to 15, the drills followed Taiwan’s National Day on October 10, during which President Lai Ching-te made statements perceived as provocative by Beijing, which views Taiwan as part of its territory. According to Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the PLA’s deployment was meant to underline Beijing’s disapproval of Lai’s pro-independence rhetoric. “By sending a higher number of military assets, they intend to ensure that Lai understands their position,” Glaser commented.
Collin Joh, a defense analyst at Singapore’s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies, noted that the operation demonstrates the PLA’s capability to mobilize and coordinate a theoretical air and naval blockade around Taiwan. He warned that the extensive presence of Chinese military forces should not be dismissed as mere posturing, as it blurs the line between military exercise and potential action, increasing the risk of miscalculations.
Joh added that Chinese forces have been operating increasingly close to Taiwan, nearing the 24-mile limit of what is known as the Contiguous Zone, where a Taiwanese military response could be triggered if crossed. He emphasized that China is strategically avoiding making the first aggressive move while seeking to provoke Taiwan into actions that could justify a military response from Beijing.
However, Glaser reassured that there is no evidence to suggest that this exercise signals an imminent invasion, as she believes China has not altered its strategic goals regarding Taiwan. She pointed out, “This is not an opportune moment for China to undertake kinetic action against Taiwan,” especially given its struggling economy plagued with substantial debt and the early consequences of a declining population.
Both Australia and the United States criticized the Chinese maneuvers. Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder labeled the military pressure operation as “irresponsible, disproportionate, and destabilizing.” He highlighted that President Lai’s address on October 10 is part of a long-standing tradition and typically elicits little response from Beijing, making the timing of this military action particularly provocative.
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong echoed these sentiments, describing the exercise as “deeply concerning” and urging China to refrain from actions that could escalate tensions or result in accidents.
