Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti has instructed the US Navy to prepare for the possibility of conflict with China over Taiwan by the year 2027. However, the Navy we have today will largely remain the same in 2027, raising important questions about what last-minute preparations Adm. Franchetti can undertake in the upcoming year.
In the Pentagon’s budgeting landscape, three budgets are currently in play. While Congress has yet to pass an appropriations bill for 2025, we can assume it will be approved by March for simplicity. This means the budgets of interest for next year include the one being executed (fiscal year 2025), the one being debated (fiscal year 2026), and the one being developed (fiscal year 2027). Consequently, the Navy has just one more budget cycle to implement substantial changes to its fleet composition before 2027, barring any previously disclosed plans. As Rep. Joe Courtney, D-Conn., aptly states, “Shipbuilding is a long game,” indicating that one year is insufficient for significant transformation, as long-time Congressional Budget Office analyst Eric Labs noted recently.
This leads to the question: What can the Navy do in the interim to prepare for a possible conflict with China? The service’s proposed answer lies in Franchetti’s recently released Navigation Plan, which features her initiative „Project 33,” aimed at ensuring the Navy is focused on 2027. Among her numerous objectives, one particularly notable goal is achieving 80 percent surge readiness. “Think back to 9/11. We know that all of a sudden we need to get ships underway to do different missions,” she stated earlier this year. “We want to be able to have a process for each of our communities—aviation, surface and submarines—that allows them to certify a ship as combat surge ready and get it out the door on the timeline that it’s needed.”
This ambition clearly has merit, but the Navy’s ongoing difficulties with maintenance and operational tempo—even in peacetime—are extensively documented. The Chief of Naval Operations will need to swiftly resolve issues that likely plagued many of her predecessors and their counterparts in the Commandant’s office.
Franchetti has also employed the phrase “Getting more players on the field,” referring not just to conventional warships, but also to incorporating unmanned vessels into the fleet. The service has invested significant resources during the early 2020s to integrate unmanned surface and subsurface vessels. Success stories, like the Saildrones operating in support of the 4th Fleet, suggest progress. In 2025, I will be focused on whether the Navy can sustain its momentum in adding unmanned vessels to its fleet and when these assets will be utilized in real-world operations alongside manned ships. Engaging the Houthis alongside a carrier strike group in the Red Sea represents a vastly different mission than conducting surveillance off the coast of South America.
Another critical factor is funding. Franchetti’s plan candidly states that without a larger budget, the Navy will encounter significant “deep strategic constraints.” Faced with a challenging financial situation this past year, the service opted to substantially cut its future modernization budget to cover fiscal shortfalls, notably slashing funds allocated for next-generation strike fighter development.
While conventional wisdom suggests that a Trump administration would likely request increased funding for defense, the uncertainty remains whether Congress—given its diverse factions, even within the GOP—will approve that heightened funding level. How the Navy adapts to the budget it ultimately receives will be a focal point for me in 2025.
For those who haven’t recently heard Franchetti’s public comments, she has a countdown timer in her office marking the days until 2027. Clearly, China and its intentions toward Taiwan are paramount in the CNO’s considerations, and rightfully so—they will remain a primary focus for her service and will be closely observed by me in the coming year.
