Turmoil, violence, and reaction defined the year 2024 across the Indo-Pacific, with China’s aggressive stance and its attempts to reshape the international order being central to many decisions made by nations in the region.
Throughout the year, Chinese forces engaged in several hostile actions, including ramming Philippine ships, allegedly attacking Vietnamese fishermen, and issuing threats toward Taiwan. However, these actions did not go unanswered, as they drove China’s neighbors and NATO countries to forge significant new agreements, enhance military exercises, conduct more joint Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), and escalate diplomatic efforts.
Japan made some of the most significant moves in 2024. Tokyo and Canberra signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA), enabling regular deployments of Japanese marines to Australia, mirroring the rotational presence of US Marines in the Northern Territory. Additionally, Japan and Britain entered into their own RAA, while Japan announced its largest defense spending increase since World War II in September. The opening statement in Japan’s defense budget emphasized, “The international community is facing the greatest post-war trial yet, and has entered a new era of crisis.”
In the Pacific Islands, which have been the battleground for China’s influence over the past two years, the situation appeared to stabilize in favor of Australia and its allies. Nauru, an island grappling with the consequences of climate change despite once having the world’s highest GDP per capita, agreed to accept $64 million USD from Australia in exchange for a veto on any future Chinese activities on the island. Nauru President David Adeang visited Canberra to sign the agreement on December 9, following a similar treaty with Tuvalu known as the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union that came into effect in late August.
Moreover, the Pacific Island states joined an Australian initiative aimed at enhancing policing capabilities in the region. Australia committed $400 million AUD ($253 million USD) over five years for this purpose, which included the establishment of a regional training center in Brisbane that was inaugurated just a day after the Nauru treaty was signed.
China’s military was not without its internal strife, as evidenced by the suspension of a senior member of the Central Military Commission and the prior disappearance of China’s third defense minister. As Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies pointed out to Breaking Defense, these developments do not foster a sense of stability within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Another significant incident unrelated to China was the extraordinary declaration of martial law—followed by its retraction—by South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol. With Yoon having avoided immediate impeachment, there may be more regional stability than initially anticipated. However, analysts warn that his actions put the crucial General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan in jeopardy, as an opposition government could seek to suspend or repeal it. Additionally, there is concern that an opposition victory might lead to a shift in approach, with a greater inclination to heed Chinese policymakers.
AUKUS Anxiety
Amidst these unfolding events, uncertainty looms over AUKUS, the trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK, and the US aimed at assisting Australia in procuring at least three Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines and developing a fleet of AUKUS submarines over the next two decades, projected to cost around $368 billion AUD ($237 billion USD).
Australia’s defense budget is not expected to rise in real terms until after the next federal election, likely scheduled for March or April next year, at the earliest. Sir Angus Houston, former Chief of the Defense Force and co-author of the Defense Strategic Review, stated in late November that Australia must ramp up overall defense spending to 3 percent of GDP to prevent compromising military capabilities in funding of AUKUS.
Currently, plans are set to increase spending to only 2.2 percent of GDP by 2028. There are visible concerns among senior Australian officials regarding budget constraints and implementation. For example, Australia canceled a $5.3 billion AUD satellite contract with Lockheed Martin, which aligns with the very cannibalization that Houston had cautioned against. The Australian government contends it has safeguarded this funding and will channel it into a new strategy, though the cut came approximately 18 months after the contract was initially awarded.
In an underreported declaration at an AUKUS-focused conference in the Indian Ocean, an Australian admiral expressed public concern that Australia’s long-term efforts to acquire and deploy nuclear-powered submarines were “at risk” unless the government acted swiftly and decisively on the necessary infrastructure.
Rear Admiral Wendy Malcolm emphasized that the military and government need to “get going” on crucial preparations for Western Australia to accommodate the AUKUS submarines or face the risk of falling behind in this generational endeavor.
