China’s expanding military might is prompting smaller nations in the Indo-Pacific to pursue asymmetric capabilities, intelligence gathering, and stronger alliances, according to Gregory Poling, director and senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Asymmetric Warfare and ISR Capabilities
Facing China’s massive navy, coast guard, and rocket forces, countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Japan are focusing on asymmetric strategies, including intermediate-range strike options and unmanned platforms. The Philippines and Indonesia are seeking external assistance for unmanned systems and investing in missile systems like the BrahMos from India.
China’s ISR Edge
Poling highlights China’s growing advantage in ISR and communications, especially in the South China Sea. With sensor arrays on artificial islands and advancements in low-Earth orbit, China can potentially monitor and target almost anything within the First Island Chain. Regional states are rapidly trying to close this gap by deploying low-cost options like unmanned AIS buoys and leveraging allied space-based technologies.
Philippines and Taiwan Bridge Divide Amidst Shared Concerns
Rising Chinese aggression is driving historically non-friendly nations like the Philippines and Taiwan closer. President Marcos recently eased restrictions, allowing Philippine officials to meet with their Taiwanese counterparts. This shift reflects a strategic consensus in Manila that prioritizing Beijing’s concerns is futile. The Philippines now sees the need for more allies, particularly given the proximity of Taiwan and the presence of a large Filipino population there.
US Assets in the Region
The US relies heavily on allies like Japan and the Philippines to counter China’s influence. These alliances provide access to Indo-Pacific waters, intelligence sharing, and military capabilities. Poling emphasizes that without these allies, the US’s ability to contest Chinese anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities from Guam and Hawaii would be limited.
Undersea and Long-Range Strike Capabilities
US undersea capabilities remain a significant advantage, allowing for uncontested access within the First Island Chain. Additionally, the US’s long-range strike capabilities, particularly its bomber fleets, are crucial for projecting power in the region.
Allied Needs
Pacific allies require ISR support, with the Philippines needing it more urgently. The Philippines lacks assets like P-8s and AWACS, relying on the US for sophisticated airbase ISR. The recent GSOMIA agreement with the Philippines is essential, as it enables the sharing of highly classified and near-real-time data. Moreover, the Philippines relies on US support for strike capabilities, particularly in the form of Tomahawk missiles and the strategic bomber fleet, for ultimate deterrence. Poling underscores the importance of the US commitment to intervene if China uses force against Filipinos in the South China Sea.
