During a recent event hosted by the Brookings Institute and CSIS, Rep. Jim Himes, the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, expressed skepticism regarding claims that China is poised to invade Taiwan by 2027, describing such a move as potentially „really dumb.”
“I’m skeptical, frankly, of that statement, which is everywhere, ‘Xi [Jinping] has ordered the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027,’” Himes stated. “First of all, it may not happen.”
Himes elaborated on his concerns, emphasizing that invading Taiwan could yield disastrous consequences for China. “What happens if you invade Taiwan? A. You may lose. B. You may reduce the place to smoking rubble, in which case, what have you really achieved economically? You’d have significant brain drain, risk a nuclear confrontation with the United States, and destabilize the region for a generation,” he explained.
The year 2027 has been highlighted as the „Davidson Window,” a term derived from comments made by former Adm. Phil Davidson, who testified in 2021 that China might attempt to annex Taiwan within that timeframe. This timeline was echoed in 2023 by CIA Director Bill Burns, who indicated that U.S. intelligence suggested Xi had set a deadline for the Chinese military to be ready for potential action.
While acknowledging that China appears to be preparing for such an eventuality, Himes questioned whether Beijing had devised a viable long-term invasion strategy. “You know, just ask Vladimir Putin how predictable invasions are, even of neighboring countries, much less across 100 miles of blue water,” he remarked.
Himes noted that while he would not entirely dismiss the possibility of a Chinese invasion within the next three years, it remains uncertain whether China would meet its preparedness objective or if such an invasion would be successful. He critiqued the notion of using the 2027 warnings to instill fear, suggesting instead that efforts should focus on reducing the likelihood of conflict.
“The steps can range from accelerating deterrence by arming Taiwan to emphasizing areas of mutual interest with China to make confrontation less probable,” Himes concluded.
