A Shift in Conventional Warfare and Emerging Technologies Inform Future Strategies
The recent clash between India and Pakistan marked a significant evolution in their long-standing rivalry, offering critical insights into modern air defense capabilities that will shape future conflicts, analysts tell Breaking Defense.
A Conflict Traditionally Ground-Centric Transforms With Air Combat Incursions
Historically, tensions between these two nuclear powers have played out primarily on land, but the latest conflict—lasting from May 7 to May 11—featured notable airspace incursions and at least one potential air-to-air kill, signaling a shift toward more integrated aerial engagement.
India launched a four-day retaliatory operation in response to Pakistan’s support for terrorists responsible for the April 22 attack on tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir. During the strikes, Pakistani sources report that as many as five Indian jets may have been shot down, though independent verification remains cautious. Reuters confirms at least two Indian aircraft were downed, with reports suggesting one was a French-built Rafale, shot down by a Chinese-designed J-10 fighter—a rare case of a modern Chinese fighter downing a Western jet.
Chinese J-10CE Makes Historic Kill in a New Era of Air Combat
Ranked as possibly the first combat encounter in which a Chinese Chengdu J-10CE fighter downed a Western-made aircraft, the engagement underscores the evolving air power landscape. The J-10CE is equipped with the PL-15 (CH-AA-10 Abaddon) medium-to-long-range missile, used at beyond visual range—mirroring modern combat trends seen in Ukraine, where beyond-line-of-sight engagements are increasingly prevalent.
Douglas Barrie, an air combat expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, emphasized caution, noting the limited information and possible disinformation from both sides, which makes definitive assessments challenging.
Drones and Lower-Altitude Tactics Amplify the Battlefield Complexity
Beyond jet-on-jet combat, analysts highlight the role of unmanned aerial systems. Kim Heriot-Darragh from the University of Melbourne points out that drones allowed both sides to penetrate deeper into enemy airspace without risking pilots’ lives. Their affordability and proliferation have accelerated the pace of operations and introduced new risks of miscalculation amid chaotic battlefield conditions.
India’s Robust Air Defense System Maintains Homeland Security
Indian officials and military analysts praise the performance of India’s Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), a sophisticated networked system that ties sensors and communications across the country’s airbases. During the conflict, India reported minimal damage from enemy projectiles, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi commended the IACCS and the valor of Air Force personnel for thwarting Pakistan’s UAV and missile attacks.
Implications for Future Escalation and Deterrence Dynamics
Strategically, the conflict appears to have lowered the threshold for India to conduct strikes on Pakistan, aiming to increase deterrence against terrorism. Kim Heriot-Darragh suggests India’s actions have raised the costs of harboring terrorist groups, but whether this will influence Islamabad’s calculations remains uncertain. The lesson from the recent escalation is that India’s military response has set a new precedent—one that blurs the line between limited engagement and broader conflict.
Anologously, Pant notes that India’s ability to perform below the nuclear threshold—while signaling strength—raises fears about future escalation. He warns that any act of terrorism by Pakistan or its affiliates could now be considered an act of war, with nuclear deterrence remaining intact as a safeguard against full-scale conflict. Both nations possess nuclear arsenals, but Indian leadership feels confident that nuclear blackmail is unlikely to succeed.
Looking Ahead: A New Era of Aerial Warfare and Risks
The recent events serve as a stark reminder that modern conflicts will increasingly involve advanced air combat, drones, and complex command and control systems. As both India and Pakistan reassess their air defenses and strategic postures, the risk of escalation remains high—necessitating careful diplomatic and military balancing to prevent further violence.
