In recent days, some hope for long-term peace in Lebanon was raised following a high-profile visit by the Pope and historic face-to-face talks with Israeli officials. But multiple experts hold to a dimmer view, telling a defense publication that as long as Israel believes the Lebanese government isn’t doing enough to disarm Hezbollah, Jerusalem will likely escalate hostilities in the coming months.
“I definitely think there’s a rising concern of any conflict escalation. It’s one way. It’s Israel escalating more in Lebanon,” Paul Salem, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, stated. “The reason being clear [is] that although Lebanon is disarming Hezbollah, [it is] not completed yet.”
A Fragile Truce: Unmet Commitments Fueling Tensions
It’s been just over a year since Lebanon and Israel agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire, in which Israel said it would withdraw from Lebanese territory and the Lebanese government said it would “prevent” Hezbollah from “carrying out any operations against Israel.” But in the year since, some Israeli forces remained in Lebanese territory, the Lebanese government has not fully disarmed a defiant Hezbollah, and Jerusalem continues to strike purported Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including in the capital of Beirut.
“We expect the Lebanese government to uphold its commitments, namely, to disarm Hezbollah,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in early November. “We won’t let Lebanon become a renewed front against us, and we’ll do what’s necessary.”
The Core Dispute: Hezbollah’s Disarmament and Israeli Suspicions
Among Israel’s allegations, Salem notes, is that Hezbollah is “reorganizing and is able to get some weapons through, and that there are some weapons in private houses that [the Lebanese] army is not checking.” The bigger picture, he explains, is that Lebanon is undertaking Hezbollah’s disarmament in a phased approach, which might take two or three years, and Israel, possibly backed by the US, wants it done much quicker, right away.
Analysts suggest this discrepancy could be what prompts Israel to escalate military actions in Lebanon — even if they don’t agree on exactly what Israel would do.
“I expect an escalation of Israeli strikes. First [because] Israel is always threatening. Second, Hezbollah claims to have regained its deterrent power. And third, it [Lebanese government] has not fully implemented Resolution 1701,” retired Lebanese armed forces general Wehbe Katicha said, referring to a 2006 Israel-Hezbollah peace agreement.
The Path Ahead: Scenarios for Military Action
Dina Arakji, an analyst at the global risk consultancy Control Risks, indicated that even if a “high degree of disarmament occurs south of the Litani River [in southern Lebanon], Israel will continue to target Hezbollah in eastern Lebanon and strike any rearmament attempts.”
“Ultimately, disarmament will remain a political issue rather than one resolved solely through LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces] operations,” Arakji added.
As such, Arakji believes additional strikes are likely and that a “limited ground operation” in southern Lebanon remains a “possibility.” Israel’s core objectives, she asserts, remain to degrade Hezbollah’s military capability and obstruct its efforts to regroup or replenish its arsenal.
Salem expects “much larger” strikes against Hezbollah targets, though he deems it unlikely Israel would go after Lebanese Armed Forces targets. These strikes may include “more areas of the Beqaa [Valley] and positions in Syria that maybe they [Israel] still think Hezbollah is smuggling from.”
General Katicha, who also considers another ground invasion possible, emphasized that “no one knows the scale Israel will adopt in this escalation.” He added that as long as residents of northern Israel do not believe they can return to their villages out of fear for their safety, “the war will continue.”
