Avoiding Binary Choices in Global Relations
Western countries are urged to refrain from pressuring Pacific Island nations into making a binary choice between aligning with China or the United States and its allies, as emphasized by Rear Adm. James Parkin of the United Kingdom’s Royal Navy. He highlighted the significant maritime strength that China could leverage against smaller nations, creating complex dynamics in the region.
China’s Maritime Dominance
Speaking at the West conference in San Diego, Parkin noted the interconnected nature of global trade, which gives China a distinct advantage. He stated, “China has a trump card of maritime trade that no other nation on the planet has.” He emphasized China’s shipbuilding prowess, which is consistently recognized as the most robust globally, leading in the number of ships constructed each year.
Parkin pointed out that the Chinese government has enacted legislation allowing merchant vessels to be converted into state-owned ships during conflicts. This means not only military vessels are available in a crisis but also a vast fleet of state-owned merchant ships—about 10,000—could be mobilized to enforce an „almost universal maritime trade embargo,” severely impacting smaller, isolated Pacific Island nations.
Coercive Tactics and Military Diplomacy
Leadership from the US Coast Guard and Navy frequently express their commitment to aiding smaller island nations in the Indo-Pacific through military diplomacy, simultaneously raising awareness of China’s coercive practices. According to the Pentagon’s 2024 report on China’s influence, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has employed tactics such as corruption, bribery, and direct threats to expand its foothold in Pacific Island countries. A notable example is the criticism from outgoing Federated States of Micronesia President David Panuelo regarding widespread bribery and threats from PRC officials towards local leaders.
The Role of Power Dynamics
While US military officials do not directly pressure these nations to choose sides, they emphasize the desirability of viewing the United States as a preferred partner over China. Parkin stated, “If you look at the different levers of power—diplomatic, industrial, military, and economic—people don’t typically associate those elements in times of peace.”
He further explained that during conflict, the military aspect becomes significantly more vital. However, if the diplomatic, industrial, and economic levers are already dominated by another power, the outcome of these nations’ decisions may not favor the West.
In summary, the growing influence of China in the Pacific poses a strategic challenge for Western nations, and careful diplomacy is required to support the autonomy and security of Pacific Island nations.