After nearly a year of anticipation, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched ground operations in southern Lebanon on the evening of September 30. Within 24 hours of Israeli troops crossing the border, Iran retaliated by firing over 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. Tragically, within 48 hours of the incursion, the IDF reported the deaths of eight soldiers in confrontations with Hezbollah forces.
As the operation unfolds, the IDF will likely encounter significant challenges. History suggests that a brief, limited campaign—something the IDF has referred to in its strategy—often results in unresolved issues, raising the risk of Israel becoming entrenched within Lebanese territory if the operation does not achieve its objectives swiftly.
Initially, the IDF characterized its actions as “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.” The focus of these operations has been on villages near the border.
The decision to initiate a ground offensive came after nearly a year of rocket, missile, and drone attacks from Hezbollah, resulting in over 7,500 rockets launched at Israel between October 2023 and August 2024. Following the first notable attacks on October 8 of last year, Israel evacuated communities along its northern border, affecting over 60,000 residents who remain displaced as long as Hezbollah’s aggression continues.
In late August, Israel’s Defense Minister urged the government to prioritize the return of displaced residents to the north. Up to that point, operational goals were primarily directed at Gaza, focusing on rescuing hostages and dismantling Hamas’ military and administrative capabilities. With the government’s endorsement of renewed objectives in the north in mid-September, preparations for decisive actions against Hezbollah intensified, including successful airstrikes targeting Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, to gain the upper hand and disrupt Hezbollah’s command structure.
The IDF’s advance into Lebanon is led by the 98th Division, comprising the Paratroop Brigade and Commando Brigade, alongside the 7th Armored Brigade. This troop composition previously engaged in combat in Khan Younis, Gaza, where they were acknowledged for developing effective tactics against Hamas tunnels. In Lebanon, they are expected to contend with Hezbollah’s tunnel networks and a challenging landscape of small villages and varied terrain. Notably, since the groundwork for the current conflict, the IDF has executed 70 targeted operations over the past 11 months to prepare for this escalation. As of October 2, the IDF’s 36th Division, including the 188th Armored Brigade, the Golani infantry, and a reserves brigade, has also been deployed in Lebanese operations.
Looking ahead, the question remains: What will transpire now that Israeli forces have crossed the border? Historical precedents shed light on this inquiry.
Israel has engaged in three significant conflicts in Lebanon. The first, initiated by a cross-border incursion in March 1978, resulted in a swift campaign against Palestinian militants. This week-long operation focused on areas south of the Litani River, ultimately leading to two UN Resolutions calling for Israel’s withdrawal and the establishment of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).
