Amidst ongoing debates about the effectiveness and future of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), the United States is expected to vote in favor of renewing the mission’s mandate for another year. However, a prominent US envoy has publicly stated that UNIFIL is „not the answer” to Lebanon’s security challenges, instead emphasizing the critical role of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).
A Billion-Dollar Investment Yielding Insufficient Results?
„A billion dollars [spent on UNIFIL] a year, 22 years of advocacy and you’re in a swamp,” US Envoy Tom Barrack declared at the Lebanese presidential palace. He pointed to the force’s apparent inability to prevent the escalation of tensions between Lebanon, Israel and Hezbollah, arguing that resources would be better directed towards strengthening the LAF. „Your answer is LAF. Your answer is not UNIFIL,” Barrack asserted.
UNIFIL’s Mandate Under Scrutiny
Established in 1978 and significantly expanded following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, UNIFIL’s mission has been to monitor the cessation of hostilities, support the LAF, and maintain stability in southern Lebanon. However, the mission’s effectiveness has come under scrutiny, particularly in light of recent events. The UN Security Council is preparing to vote on the renewal of UNIFIL’s mandate, which expires this month.
Post-Ceasefire Realities and Calls for Disarmament
The upcoming vote is the first since the US-mediated ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, which ended over a year of hostilities that began shortly after the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. The Lebanese government has since called for Hezbollah to be disarmed, a move the organization vehemently opposes.
Ali Bakir, a professor at Qatar University, suggested that UNIFIL’s original mandate may no longer be suitable given the changed circumstances. „Now that Israel occupied and destroyed parts of Lebanon in addition to the will of the international community, and the Lebanese government to pressure Hezbollah to disarm it, it will be very difficult for the UNIFIL to work with its previous mandate,” Bakir said.
Potential for a Revised Mandate
Retired Lebanese Armed Forces Gen. Wehbe Katicha anticipates the mandate will be renewed with new conditions, „including providing UNIFIL with modern military equipment that will enable it to monitor Hezbollah activities in the region, giving it some authority to enter sites that contain weapons or ammunitions [for Hezbollah] and giving it greater authority to support the Lebanese Army and cooperate on the operational level.”
The Future of UNIFIL: A Final Renewal?
Despite the expected renewal, the long-term future of UNIFIL remains uncertain. RANE Global Security Analyst Freddy Khoueiry believes this could be the final year of the mission. He stated that „Israel, backed by the United States, argues that UNIFIL has outlived its usefulness…[it] failed to prevent Hezbollah’s entrenchment in southern Lebanon in the years leading up to the 2024 war, and with Hezbollah now weakened, it sees little justification for keeping the force in place.”
