As Congress reconvenes next week, one critical question looms: Can defense advocates in Congress successfully push for increased military funding in fiscal year 2025?
The House has chosen to align its defense spending and policy proposals with the previous year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), which established an $895.2 billion cap on defense spending for FY25 as part of a broader debt ceiling agreement.
Conversely, Senate committees responsible for defense funding are advocating for a budget increase that would exceed these established caps, potentially adding tens of billions of dollars to the Pentagon’s budget even as the Pentagon’s own budget request struggles to keep pace with inflation.
Upon returning from recess, Congress’s immediate priority will be to approve a funding stopgap that ensures continued financing for federal agencies before the current spending authority expires on September 30. After this, the more complex negotiations will begin.
The House has already passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the defense spending bill. However, the Senate is lagging, with neither piece of legislation reaching the floor for debate. This delay may complicate the reconciliation process between the Senate and House armed services committees, as noted by Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., during the Defense News conference.
Wittman expressed that the top funding figure would likely need to remain at $833 billion due to the FRA, but indicated that other aspects of the budget may still be open for negotiation.
Adding another layer of complexity to the process is the imminent presidential election in November, which will usher in a new administration, regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans take the victory. Additionally, congressional elections could also shift control of the House and Senate.
According to Byron Callan, a defense analyst with Capital Alpha Partners, “We expect a continuing resolution (CR) to extend to December, with the subsequent steps contingent on the outcome of the 2024 elections.” He anticipates that Congress will likely increase the FY25 budget request, though he cautions that the effects on defense contractors may vary significantly.
As a whirlwind of budget discussions is anticipated throughout the remainder of 2024, and possibly extending into the following year, Breaking Defense outlines the funding strategies proposed by each defense committee, focusing on eight vital areas.
Overview of Defense Budgets:
- Topline Budget Discrepancies: The proposed figures from appropriations and authorizing committees do not align due to differing scopes of national defense spending across various bills.
- Presidential Budget Request: The White House has proposed a total national defense budget of $895.2 billion for FY25, with $849.8 billion allocated specifically for the Defense Department—consistent with the FRA.
- House NDAA: This bill authorizes $883.7 billion in total funding, including $849.8 billion for the Defense Department and $33.8 billion for the Department of Energy.
- Senate Armed Services Committee NDAA: This proposal seeks to authorize $908.4 billion in total, exceeding FRA limits, with congressional aides indicating it adds roughly $25 billion to overall national defense funding.
- F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Requests:
- President’s Budget: Requests a total of 68 aircraft.
- House NDAA: Reduces the request to 58 aircraft, with funding contingent upon meeting specific Defense Department requirements.
- Senate Appropriations Committee Bill: Funds the initial request, while suggesting targeted reductions due to previous delays.
As Congress navigates these discussions, the potential outcomes could shape the future of military funding and priorities for years to come.
