Despite a strong military presence in the Middle East, the US Air Force had „no indications” ahead of Israel’s strike on Hamas targets in Qatar on September 9. However, a robust military-to-military relationship between Washington and Doha helped mitigate potential tensions in the aftermath, according to a senior Air Force official.
Surprise Strike
Air Force Central (AFCENT) Commander Lt. Gen. Derek France told reporters that the US lacked early warnings because „our surveillance and all our attention was not put on something [like that] that would happen. It wasn’t something that we expected.” He made these comments at the Air and Space Forces Association conference.
Focus on Iran
While the US maintains thousands of troops at Al Udeid Air Base and possesses sophisticated sensing capabilities in the region, these resources are primarily focused on potential threats from Iran, France explained.
Importance of Indications and Warnings
The strike highlighted the critical need for comprehensive indications and warnings systems, ranging from space-based assets to non-traditional sources, to detect attacks as they unfold. Effective communication and coordination with partners like Qatar are also essential, France emphasized.
Tension Moderated by Military Ties
France acknowledged „some tension” between US and Qatari officials following the strike. However, he expressed confidence that the strong military-to-military relationship would prevent any lasting impact on US access to and operations from Qatar.
Dialogue and Understanding
Following the attack, US officials engaged with their Qatari counterparts to „talk through” the strike, fostering mutual understanding despite the inherent tensions.
Reduced Russian Presence in Syria
Shifting to Syria, France noted that Russia’s presence has significantly decreased following the collapse of the Assad regime. While Moscow retains an interest in maintaining a foothold in the country, its footprint is now largely limited to its naval and air bases.
Limited Activity
Moscow has „really ratcheted down to just their naval base and their air base there, and we don’t see a large amount of activity out of the Russians,” France said.
Fewer Encounters
Encounters between US and Russian forces, which were frequent during the height of the Syrian civil war, have substantially declined. This reduction is partly attributed to Russia’s need to redeploy forces to support its invasion of Ukraine.
Geostrategic Interests
Despite the change in Syrian governance, Russia remains interested in maintaining access to a warm water port on the Mediterranean coast for geostrategic reasons. However, France suggested that Russia faces an „uphill battle” in achieving this objective given the new political landscape in Syria.
