On December 26, the People’s Republic of China celebrated the birthday of its founder Mao Zedong by unofficially unveiling two new advanced aircraft designs. While details on these jets remain sparse, experts tell Breaking Defense that there are indicators of how the new systems could impact American interests in the region.
Leaked Videos Provide Insights
The aircraft appeared in videos leaked on social media. Although the provenance of the videos is unclear, their ability to penetrate China’s formidable firewalls and remain online suggests that the leaks have received official sanction.
The videos display two previously unknown aircraft designs. The larger aircraft, appearing as an advanced flying wing reminiscent of the American B-2 and B-21 bombers, has been named Chengdu J-36 in public discussions, based on the belief that it flew from Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s (CAC) headquarters. The second aircraft, which is less defined, seems to be fighter-sized and is likely from Shenyang Aerospace Corporation (SAC).
Design and Purpose of the J-36
Several experts on advanced Chinese and US aircraft believe that the larger J-36 is likely intended for long-range operations and capable of carrying a substantial weapons load. (CAC is also responsible for producing China’s premier fighter, the stealthy J-20.)
“The tailless design is aimed at enhancing stealth, while the delta-wing design is meant to provide long-range capabilities. It is about the same size as a strike fighter, so I don’t think it is intended to be analogous to a B-21 [bomber],” said Bryan Clark, an expert at the Hudson Institute in Washington, in an email to Breaking Defense.
Concerns About Chinese Military Capabilities
Regarding the actual advanced aircraft being developed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Dave Deptula, head of the Air and Space Force’s Association’s Mitchell Institute, noted in an email to Breaking Defense, “These don’t look like aircraft with traditional air-to-air characteristics. More like very stealthy platforms with large payload bays (to carry long-range weapons) to get close enough for first shots against U.S. high-value aircraft…and/or deliver ordnance against U.S./allied high-value surface targets, including surface ships.”
Malcolm Davis, a China expert at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, mentioned that the “large weapons bay on the J-36 gives it the ability to be an excellent long-range air interceptor optimized against U.S. and allied combat support platforms like AWACS/AEW, tankers, and other reconnaissance MPA-type platforms.”
This capability “would make it more difficult for U.S. Navy carrier aviation to project power inside the first island chain if their key combat support platforms cannot survive in face of a high-speed, long-range, stealthy interceptor like the J-36,” Davis noted.
Strategic Implications of Advanced Chinese Jets
China has long emphasized its long-range and high-speed missiles, such as the DF-21, which is believed to have the capacity to strike U.S. carriers and targets like Guam. Due to the difficulty in assessing the smaller second aircraft, experts have provided less analysis on it. However, Davis suggested that “its fully maneuverable tail fins are highly innovative, allowing superior stealth when flat and superior maneuverability when active.”
He posits that SAC likely represents a shorter-range platform, with less payload than the J-36, “so it may be optimized for operations within the first island chain, while CAC J-36 has significantly greater speed, range, and payload.” He stressed that more information on the SAC platform is necessary for a comprehensive analysis, hence the focus on the CAC platform.
Impact on U.S. Military Strategy
The real question is how these developments could influence American strategic thinking. As a whole, experts assert that Chinese aircraft “appear to be well behind their U.S. counterparts in stealth, sensor fusion, and speed/maneuverability,” according to Clark. This is largely because, while the PRC can replicate the exterior features of a U.S. design, the mission systems, stealth coatings, and propulsion/control technologies are often highly classified and difficult to source.
Clark and Davis both pointed to the challenges China faces in developing jet engines equipped with high-quality, durable turbines. “China’s jet engine and avionics industries are immature,” Clark explained, “which is why COMAC has not been able to deploy a viable commercial aircraft until recently, and even that aircraft is only being purchased by Chinese carriers who lack alternatives.”
Future Outlook
Though China often creates weapon systems that physically resemble U.S. models to showcase its technical prowess, the J-36 is viewed as a potential counterpart to the American Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program — currently reassessing its path ahead. The emergence of the J-36 serves as a critical motivator for U.S. planners to advance NGAD, argued Deptula.